Rhino Capital / Rhino Communities
Acquisition Intelligence
MHP Deal Math
Analyze any park in 15 minutes.
Most bad manufactured housing deals should die before the spreadsheet gets elaborate. This framework is built to test income, expense reality, value, upside, and risk quickly enough to protect your time and your basis.
On this page
The 15-Minute Framework
The rapid underwrite system breaks down into five precise phases, each designed to filter deals with surgical efficiency. Every phase builds on the last, creating a sequential filter that eliminates bad deals before you waste valuable time.
Calculate Gross Income
Determine actual current lot rent income based on occupied lots and current rent rates. No projections, no assumptions—just real numbers.
Apply Expense Reality Filter
Reconcile operating records. Use explicit scenario assumptions only where verified costs are not yet available.
Derive NOI & Cap Test
Calculate net operating income and compare stabilized value against asking price. This is your first go/no-go checkpoint.
Calculate Rent Upside
Identify value creation potential by comparing current rents to market rates. Quantify the opportunity—but never pay for upside you haven't captured.
Risk Scan & Verdict
Complete a systematic risk assessment covering infrastructure, utilities, occupancy, and regulatory factors. Assign your color-coded verdict.
That's it. Five phases. Fifteen minutes. No complex spreadsheet required.
Phase 1–2: Income & Expenses
Gross Income Formula
Occupied Lots × Lot Rent × 12
- → Always use current occupied count, not total lots.
- → Only count lot rent initially — value POH income separately.
- → Use actual current rent, never projected rates.
Worked Example
— 45 total lots, 36 occupied
— Current lot rent: $425/month
— Calculation: 36 × $425 × 12
Verify the expense evidence.
Reconcile source records, recurring costs and the assumptions in the model.
Illustrative Expense-Ratio Scenarios
Common Mistake #1
Using Total Lots Instead of Occupied
Using total lots instead of occupied lots counts income that may not exist. Reconcile occupied sites, billed rents and collections.
Common Mistake #2
Trusting Seller's Expense Ratio
An expense ratio is a screen, not a substitute for verified operating costs.
Common Mistake #3
Mixing POH and Lot Rent
Including POH rent with lot rent without adjustment values rental income at land income rates—a critical error.
These ranges are illustrative screening assumptions, not observed market averages. Build actual operating expenses from source records. Identify one-time capital work and reserves separately; do not silently mix them into recurring NOI.
Phase 3–4: Valuation & Upside
Now comes the moment of truth. You have income and expenses—time to calculate what the property is actually worth and compare it to what the seller is asking. This is where most deals die, and that's exactly what should happen.
NOI Calculation
NOI = Gross Income − Expenses
Gross Income: $183,600
Expenses (45%): −$82,620
Valuation Formula
Value = NOI ÷ Cap Rate
$100,980 ÷ 0.09 =
$1,122,000Cap Rate Truth
The percentage change in value depends on the starting cap rate. At constant NOI, moving from 8% to 9% lowers value by approximately 11.1%.
Illustrative Cap-Rate Scenarios
Illustrative Risk Sensitivities
Rent Upside Analysis
Once you know current value, calculate value creation potential through rent increases.
(Market Rent − Current Rent) × Occupied Lots × 12 = Annual Upside
Incremental NOI after recurring costs ÷ Cap Rate = Indicated Value Change
Critical Rule
Never pay for upside you haven't captured. Rent increases take time, cost money, and carry execution risk. A rent gap does not establish when or whether higher collections are achievable. Market rent must be verified through actual comparable properties, not assumed from online listings.
Phase 5: Risk Scan & The Verdict
The final three minutes determine whether you proceed, negotiate, or walk away. This systematic risk scan identifies deal-killers before they kill your returns. Every question matters—two or more unknowns means this becomes a diligence-heavy deal requiring expert consultation, not a quick yes.
Sewer Type
Water Source
POH Percentage
Occupancy Rate
Delinquency
Infrastructure
The Three-Color Verdict System
Green Light
Math works at asking price or close. Risk scan shows clear path forward. Upside identified and achievable.
Action: Request full DD package immediately and schedule site visit.
Yellow Light
Math only works with terms or price reduction. Risk factors require answers before proceeding. Upside uncertain or execution-dependent.
Action: Submit counter with conditions.
Red Light
Math doesn't work. Multiple red flags present. Asking price is delusional relative to value.
Action: Polite pass, archive for follow-up in 6 months.
Illustrative screening outcomes—not a measured distribution:
Measure the reasons for decisions, not a target rejection percentage.
The Two-Unknown Rule
If you have two or more unknowns in the risk scan, this is a diligence-heavy deal requiring specialized expertise. Either get definitive answers to reduce unknowns, or factor substantial uncertainty discount into your price. Unknown risk cannot be properly underwritten in 15 minutes.
Your Rapid Underwrite System
You now have a systematic approach that separates real opportunities from time-wasting fantasies. Speed without discipline is recklessness. Discipline without speed is paralysis. This system gives you both.
Each phase builds on the previous, creating sequential filters that eliminate bad deals before you waste time on full underwriting. Math comes first. Site visits come later. Emotional attachment comes only after the numbers earn that privilege.
Essential Tools & Resources
Rapid Underwrite Card
Print 10 copies of the single-page worksheet. Keep them ready for instant deal analysis. Track every deal—the discipline of documentation improves decision quality.
Deal Comparison Worksheet
Compare up to three deals side-by-side. Objective comparison prevents recency bias and helps identify the truly superior opportunity.
Quick Reference Tables
Save income, NOI, and valuation lookup tables to your phone. Instant access to calculation shortcuts when reviewing listings on the go.
10-Deal Tracking Sheet
Monitor your pipeline and verdict distribution. Review the documented reasons for decisions; do not impose a target rejection rate.
Common Mistakes to Avoid
Math Errors
- ✕Using total lots instead of occupied lots
- ✕Trusting seller's expense ratios
- ✕Using wrong cap rate for market
- ✕Adding POH rent without adjustment
- ✕Underwriting to pro forma instead of actual
Process Errors
- ✕Ignoring infrastructure and utility risk
- ✕Getting emotionally attached before math works
- ✕Skipping market rent research
- ✕Not tracking your verdict statistics
- ✕Spending hours on deals that fail in minutes
Your Next Actions
Step 1
Prepare
Print 10 Rapid Underwrite Cards. Save quick reference tables to your phone. Research cap rates for your target markets.
Step 2
Practice
Analyze your next deal in exactly 15 minutes. Time yourself. Force decisions. Build the muscle memory of disciplined filtering.
Step 3
Track
Record every verdict. Calculate your filter rate monthly. Review the reasons for each decision and the quality of supporting evidence.
Step 4
Refine
Update your market cap rates quarterly. Adjust expense ratios based on actual experience. Continuously improve your filtering accuracy.
The operator rule
“Don’t get emotionally attached before it passes math. If it passes math, you’ve earned the right to care.”
No stories. No hope. No exceptions. Math first. Emotions last.
Speed compounds. A disciplined 15-minute filter lets you review more opportunities without lowering standards, which increases the probability of finding the deals that actually deserve deeper underwriting.
The point is not to analyze less. It is to eliminate bad deals sooner, protect attention, and reserve detailed diligence for situations where the economics have already earned it.
